Breaking: Breaking Sanctions?
Are we holding our collective nerve amidst news, rumours, and information manipulation?
I read news on the HM Intel Instagram feed this evening (2 July 2025, screenshot below) that US President Trump has lifted sanctions on a range of strategically-important Russian entities, including Rosoboroneksport (the state arms dealership) and some banks.
Image: Screenshot from a HM Intel Instagram message, 2 July 2025
This would be massive, coming off the back of the US White House’s decision to pause supplies of some arms to Ukraine.
Sanctions have been a key tool in Ukraine’s allies in mitigating Russian aggression. Many commentators do not like sanctions, but this perhaps demonstrates a misunderstanding of why they are applied, certainly against Russia.
Sanctions are not meant to hurt the Russian people: they are designed to be targeted against key elite and business figures and hurt their financial interests. The hope is that those key figures then exert enough pressure on the Kremlin to force the Russian leadership to change its course.
Sanctions are also meant to curtail Russia’s access to finance flows, arms, and equipment.
Clearly, they have not stopped Russia’s brutal attacks on Ukraine. But it is not possible to determine to what extent they have possibly slowed the invasion, or reduced the effectiveness of the Russian war machine.
They have also likely worked in causing widespread unrest and divisions within the Russian elite. Alleged leaked phone calls in 2023 possibly revealed the anger of some in the Russian business community with the war.
Andrey Kostin, head of VTB bank, also recently admitted that sanctions are having massive impact on the economy.
It is not clear to me yet what the extent of the supposed lifting of sanctions against Russian entities. There has been no official report or news in established media (you know what I mean).
However, there have been several claims on Russian Telegram channels claiming that Trump has lifted sanctions, such as Vladimir Solovyev’s channel today.
Image: Screenshot from the Solovyev Telegram channel, 2 July 2025. ‘The Trump Administration is stopping sanctions for several Russian bodies until 19 December 2025, which opens up the possibility of renewing transactions between the USA and major Russian banks, and also their subsidiary companies, especially in the field of civilian atomic projects’
Solovyev and others point to a document, included in the Telegram post and seemingly genuine, noting that the US authorities have loosened some restrictions of financial activity.
The prospect of lifting sanctions against Moscow at the moment, when the signs are that they could be about to have real detrimental impact on the Russian economy, is unthinkable. Part of me instinctively feels that we are so close to achieving some kind of victory over Moscow, if we could only hold our nerve. Collectively.
However, like much in this war, the informational aspect is crucial, and damage can be wrought at speed, hard to revert.
The Russians almost certainly know that informational manipulation works on many levels, and is most effective when different strands of messaging coincide and reinforce each other.
Any sign that Washington is considering aiding Moscow will be a massive blow in morale, and a significant boost to Russia. This is almost certainly why pro-Kremlin channels are trying to amplify suggestions.
Such news also cuts through what the UK is trying to achieve, and what the FCDO has tried to achieve for many years, which is a coalition—informational and otherwise—against the Kremlin. The UK is only successful as a nation within coalitions, and is highly dependent on countries cooperating not only on sanctions, but on messaging. The UK is especially dependent on the United States in all these matters.
I’ll follow news—and messaging—on this topic. There is likely more to come. But the UK, and other governments, would do well to prepare now for a possible US breaking of sanctions against Russia: both in terms of their economic and informational responses.