‘DNR’ Water Crisis Deepens
The indicators of discontent in the enslaved territory are seemingly growing. And so are the memes
(See below)
I wrote yesterday about the ongoing water emergency in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (‘DNR’). The crisis has been going on in various forms for years, but appears to be getting even worse. In some places in the ‘DNR’ supply is ‘officially’ at 30% of normal, though is likely far lower.
It is very hard to know where this crisis leads. The ‘DNR’ is a unique entity, distinct even from the other temporarily enslaved territories and their people, and the situation there is without precedent.
In addition, there is no clear methodology on how to interpret social polling, media, or other data from the ‘DNR’. I—no social scientist—have been, through my Lvivski organisation and various networks, helping gather and study various types of information from the enslaved regions. I know other teams who are also going through polling information that is highly limited in its scope.
There is an urgent need for a common understanding and approach to interpreting this, among governments and among other teams working to support the enslaved regions.
One approach is to analyse local media, including social media and Telegram. Such methods require specialist local knowledge, as well as data knowledge—and assessments will only be partial.
So at this moment, we have extremely poor aggregate understanding of the attitudes among the enslaved people in Ukraine, and how they going to react to extreme political and social pressures. It is not possible (for me, at least) to predict how people will respond to the growing water crisis, or, for that matter, the increasingly dire problems with the infrastructure, roads, utilities, prices, or the ever-looming threat of being picked up off the street and forced to fight against your country for the Russians.
As I mentioned yesterday, I have a growing sense that the ‘DNR’ authorities are keyed in to and only concern themselves with satisfying a narrow band of constituents, and are now openly indifferent to the needs of the ordinary enslaved people. How people will continue to tolerate this, I do not yet know.
The points I make here are accordingly highly caveated, and based on a largely personal understanding of Telegram channels that I have been following for years.
Nonofficial Telegram channels increasingly critical
It seems to me that nonofficial Telegram channels from Donetsk are increasingly despairing of the situation, and of the ‘DNR’ authorities’ attempts to blame this on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their supposed attempt to impose a water blockade.
Anecdotal comments suggests a widespread ability to discern the truth behind the ‘DNR’s’ mendacity, and an understanding that the local powers are responsible for the water crisis.
The nonofficial Donetskaya MartynoVa Telegram channel posted today (22 July) a long satirical post that started thusly:
The post continues, but here is a quick translation:
Donetsk is currently talking about nothing but water. The timetable that we get it "once every three days", and the explanations that "it dried up on its own" have completely pushed everything else into the background.
I won’t go into the topics of "water genocide", as probably everyone else already has.
Let’s just imagine the news reports in... half a year, for example 😂
💥 "In Donetsk, unknown individuals snatched a bottle of social water from an elderly woman in the entrance hall."
💥 "Law enforcement officers during a raid in the Petrovskiy district found a full bathtub in one of the apartments. The origin of the water is being investigated."
💥 "Starting tomorrow, monthly ration coupons for water will be issued by the MFC [local administration offices that cater for a range of government services]. For citizens’ convenience, the electronic queue has been extended for two months."
💥 "In Makeevka [sic], a woman filed a police report against her cohabitant: the man disappeared, taking ten bottles of water with him. The victim is sure that the gigolo lived with her because he found out about the 400-litre reservoir in her basement and used the water for personal purposes for a month."
💥 "Donetsk will introduce a tax on the collection of rainwater. Payments for this natural resource will improve the quality of communal services."
💥 "In Donetsk, the price of a litre of water has exceeded petrol tenfold. Owing to this, many petrol stations have expressed a desire to repurpose into water refilling stations."
💥 "A secret stash was found in the Kalininskiy district. A previously-convicted resident tried to hide half-litre bottles of water in a playground."
💥 "In Mospino, poor neighbourly relations led to a local resident spitting into a neighbour’s well. The neighbour reported the incident to the police. The origin of the illegal well is being investigated, and the owner faces time in prison."
💥 "In Donetsk, an unemployed resident was detained on the spot for stealing a cup of water from an office. The incident was recorded by surveillance cameras."
💥 "On the Donetsk-Mariupol highway, unknown individuals committed an armed robbery on a water tank, pumping out two tons of water. 'The fiends drank two buckets on the spot, doused each other with two more, all the while laughing cynically', the vehicle’s driver said through his tears."
🥰🫡 "Today in Donetsk, a record amount of precipitation was recorded thanks to the fact that this issue was taken under personal control by the leadership."
I have seen other comments on Telegram mocking the ‘DNR’s’ attempts to blame the crisis on the Ukrainians, the key part of the ‘DNR’s’ messaging.
And of course, through the despair, the gallows humour continues:
Image: Khuevyi Donetsk Telegram channel, 22 July: ‘Are you sure you have water?’
Water situation indicative of wider crisis in ‘DNR’
I shall write more about the ‘DNR’ and its failing governance over the next days and weeks.
I’ll just make some very rough, extemporaneous observations:
The water crisis demonstrates the callousness of the ‘DNR’. A concerned administration would have devoted resources to the infrastructure over 11 years ago.
It is likely that businesses with links to the administration are profiteering from controlling and selling bottled water. So some people will be doing well, though they are having problems finding staff and drivers.
It also indicates poor governance, a lack of strategic planning and an inability to adapt and respond. This is from the ‘DNR’, but also from Moscow—Russia has been forced to send engineers to try to repair major pipelines, but this does not appear to have helped. In addition, there is a severe shortage of local water mechanics and engineers in Donetsk, as many men have been called up to fight.
The Russian invasion has brought ruin to Donetsk, as lives there have got worse, and in many cases intolerable. More work is required to understand these social attitudes, and to find ways to support the resistance.
There is seeming widespread cynicism about the ‘DNR’s’ handling of the situation and its attempts to manipulate information surrounding the crisis. That suggests that the enslaved people there do not blindly believe the ‘DNR’ messaging, a cause for optimism if we can establish the correct ways at cognitive deoccupation.
Now is not the time—as governments’ policies and many programmes appear to be doing—to give up on the enslaved people. The situation there is dire, and abandoning it would be a grave dereliction of our human obligations.