Life and Collapse for the Enslaved People of Ukraine
Those who want to sign off Ukrainians to Russian brutality in some kind of 'peace deal' need to understand the fate that awaits them
Normally people at this time offer their summaries of the previous 12 months and forecasts for the year to come.
I’ll try to resist the temptation to do either, given that 2024 was a hard year for Ukraine, and also for the UK’s foreign policy (I mentioned this to a Ukrainian friend a few days ago, and their stoic response was: ‘Well, at least it wasn’t as bad as 2022’).
Ukraine has not collapsed, and much of the country is functioning. Regular visitors to Ukraine will likely agree that parts of Ukraine are operating normally, whatever the new normal is, with some of the cafés, bars and restaurants even better than ever. The promotion of Ukrainian culture, within the country and around the world, appears stronger than ever, and I for one learn more and more about the Ukrainian language, its literature, history, and traditions every day. This is a beautiful thing.
Yet that is not universally the case. The the fact is that much of Ukraine remains occupied and its people enslaved, and has been for over a decade. Young adults in parts of the east and Crimea have known nothing other than Russian rule and the imposition of a brutal, foreign rule.
That Ukraine’s so-called allies have done nothing significant to liberate these people marks an egregious aberration of our humanitarian obligations. It’s laziness — the vague hope of European countries that we could somehow close our eyes to the worse of Russian brutality and hope that the problems could remain contained to territories far from our lands, at the expense of the people who live there.
Worse still, it represents our moral cowardice — our failure to stand up for the universal values we supposedly cherish here yet deny to others. UK politicians have promised much, yet 2024 has exposed more the gaps between their rhetoric and what they are actually prepared to do.
The ruin of the enslaved areas
Conditions in the enslaved areas of Ukraine testify to the true fate of the Ukrainians trapped there.
I travelled very often to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts from around 2005 to 2013, and watched the transformation of especially the centre of Donetsk during that time, from a Soviet industrial town splattered with charming slagheaps to something quite cosmopolitan, with improving infrastructure, hotels, and restaurants. The areas felt increasingly integrated into European ways of life and thinking.
I have been following the degradation of the areas since their capture in 2014. Of course, many of the most talented people fled the enslaved areas in 2014 and were forced to set up in other parts of Ukraine. It became increasingly difficult to get information out of the areas. Certainly in 2024, I found that people in the temporarily occupied territories (here TOTs for convenience, though I am extremely wary of concentrating on ‘territories’ rather than on the fate of the people) became increasingly reluctant to discuss their situation with me. However, the TOTs are not a black box, and it is possible to learn about life there and how dire conditions there are becoming. The skill is to know which sources to cultivate, monitor, and follow.
Things in the TOTs have almost certainly got much worse since 2022. This is because of the increased repression of the enslaved people, and also because of the enforced mobilisation of many Ukrainian men in the TOTs. This has led to social and economic crises across the TOTs, including in the infrastructure that was built up so quickly in the years before the invasions.
Take, for instance, Donetsk, formerly a jewel in eastern Ukraine. The infrastructure has been close to collapse for many months. I have been tracking in particular the water situation, and many people in Donetsk and other towns have not had proper water supplies for months.
People have had to walk for distances to collect bottled water. This has been especially hard for young families and for pensioners. People have queued for hours for supplies. Some people have to collect rain water in outdoor basins.
Screenshot of a video from Telegram purportedly showing people collecting rain water to use at home
Some have even had to scoop water from puddles in the street.
Screenshot of a video from Telegram purportedly showing an 83-year-old woman scooping water from a puddle
There are clearly severe problems with the water and sewerage infrastructure in Donetsk. Several people have complained about sewer water coming up through their taps. One anonymous resident of Donetsk was woken up on New Year by the smell of faecal matter streaming upwards out through their toilet and all over the flat. Others cannot use their toilets.
Screenshot of a video from Telegram purportedly showing sewer backflow pouring up through a toilet and running through someone’s apartment
Some complain of shit pouring up through cracks in the roads into the streets.
Private companies have, unsurprisingly, profiteered from offering water deliveries, and appear to be struggling to recruit enough staff to cope with the demand. However, it appears clear that not everyone can afford such luxury as bottled water.
The roads also (an important deal in Ukraine) are falling apart.
The situation in the TOTs appears dire. This seems the case for other occupied regions, including Crimea where people suffer from a crumbling infrastructure, terrible public transport, housing and schools that have not been repaired for over a decade. There is a shortage of doctors and medical professionals across the TOTs, worrying, considering the potential for disease and illness in the unsanitary conditions in some areas.
There is also a shortage of proper food: meat, especially in Donetsk, is incredibly expensive, and videos occasionally appear on social media of children begging on the street for food.
Many people live in permanent fear. I know of men who have hidden inside their flats and have literally not left their home for over almost three years, for fear of being pressed into fighting for the local forces, or worse.
Increasing awareness of the enslaved people
This matters, because the Russians are not able to offer enslaved Ukrainians a better life or prospects for the future. Regardless of what Russians or their proxies say, Ukrainians in the TOTs will have to cope with increasingly difficult and harmful conditions under Russian rule. And regardless of what Russians or their proxies say, Ukrainians in the TOTs will not be as treated as equal to the Russians, no matter the talk of integration of the ‘new regions’.
One immediate practical concern is that we must increase our research and awareness of the situation in the TOTs, highlighting resistance, demonstrating solidarity, and not giving up on the people there. As I note above, the TOTs are not a impermeable black box, and it is possible to get information in and out.
I do not think that Kyiv and Moscow can strike some peace agreement that stabilises the fighting or brings an end to the war (I think notions like ‘war’ and ‘victory’ require reconsideration; in any case, I don’t suppose that Putin is looking for a specific point of victory in his endless war on the world).
Those who advocate pushing Kyiv to conclude some kind of deal with Putin, in which Moscow keeps hold of parts of Ukraine, must understand the fate to which those enslaved Ukrainians are condemned. Cold, hunger, illness, deprivation, repression, torture, murder – these are the possible things that await those who we abandon. Do not forget the massacres of Bucha, Irpen, Sloviansk, innocent people tortured and executed with impunity — the Russians can do that again, at any time and in any place under their control, and are likely to do so.
It is far too easy to give in at this stage and succumb to the temptation of a temporary cessation. But that — given Putin’s need now to be in a state of permanent conflict with the non-Russian — would only be short-term, and what comes next will be much worse. And as for wanting to conclude an agreement now to save Ukrainian lives: that is only a decision that the Ukrainians can and should make.
For now, the Ukrainians are the focus of Putin’s war on the non-Russian. Anyone who thinks that this war ends with Ukraine is, to my mind, mistaken, or not considering their moral obligations. The fate of the enslaved Ukrainians should highlight the real loathing that Putin and the Russian leadership have for anything seemingly opposite to their worldview. And we should think long and hard before giving up on them.
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