What the Hell Just Happened?
Nothing much...?
Remember Sunday?
1 June 2025, Day of the Russian Airforce’s Military Aviation Transport fleet.
Others have written well on the actual operation.
One thing I would caution, however, is calling it Russia’s ‘Pearl Harbour’, which was the impetus for a great power to reconstitute its military and come back to secure an ultimate victory.
I’ll just scribble some inchoate notes on the Russian response.
Delving down into the complex tensions between official and nonofficial sources, and the usually proceleusmatic but febrile Z-blogger community, over the next day or so will reveal much about tensions within the system and around it.
But for now, the fascinating aspect of this is Moscow’s official silence. It is clear that Kyiv wanted to strike a psychological blow as much as a military one, pushing home to the Russian people the fact that they cannot avoid the war, no matter how far they are geographically from Ukraine, and that no Russian can insulate themselves from Moscow’s imperialism.
The Kremlin seems intent on not permitting this psychological pressure to filter through its information system. I watched state news sources yesterday, and focused on the investigations into the train bridge collapses and the preparations for the Istanbul talks today. State sources admitted that there was an ongoing drone attack, but emphasised the work of air defences and kept a running total of how many drones they shot down.
Nonofficial sources, particularly on Telegram, started yesterday with a running commentary on the attacks, but all seemed to stop posting on the drones at around 15:30 UK time. (On Telegram, it is often more telling to examine non-activity rather than activity in order to discern levels of coordination.) It was as if someone in the Presidential Administration sent out an order telling them to STFU, until the Kremlin could gather its response.
Keeping a nuanced watch on these sources today and in the coming days will reveal much about the system. Here the Z-bloggers will be useful. Official Moscow has stressed that people do not need to concern themselves personally about the war, the leadership can handle everything and leave people to lead their lives as normal as long as they do not oppose the Kremlin. That policy is seemingly changing, however, and the Ukrainians seem determined to help unravel it.
The further specific Z-bloggers break ranks with the Kremlin (and they are starting to do so, but in different ways), the more we shall see into ongoing developments. The deeper our examination into various Z-bloggers, the more we are likely to see complex differences in opinion, specific and telling grievances, particular problems within Russia and with the leadership and military that we could exploit.
(I just hope that analysis on this, though, is intelligent and caveated, I am getting sick of cavalier dilettantes and their hot takes on Russia and its media system that are not just stupid—they are dangerous, and I cannot ignore them.)
Ignoring is beautiful. It is so easy. The Kremlin is an Ignore Master. The Kremlin wants many people to ignore many things, its brutality, its avarice, its coercions and subjugations. Kyiv is helping us punch through this.
Vladimir Medinskiy, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide and advisor on ‘cultural’ affairs, heads the delegation at the talks today. He has almost certainly received orders to ignore the attack, despite Kyiv trying to underline the impact of Operation Spider’s Web. Let’s watch for how long the rest of the country can ignore along.
Image: Screenshot from the notorious ultranationalist Alex Parker Returns Telegram channel, 2 June (‘Medinskiy told journalists that he flew to the Istanbul talks with Ukraine in a good mood? Didn't something happen?’)